Poker Term Fold Equity

Fold equity is probably the main reason that makes aggressive poker play so profitable. Understanding how fold equity works and being able to use it to your advantage can drastically boost your game!

Fold equity refers to your chances of causing your opponent to fold. Technically speaking, if you think your opponent will fold 20% of the time in a $200 pot, you have $40 in fold equity. However, in broader terms, fold equity can be used to signify that you're putting thought into the fact that you can make your opponent fold. Fold Equity Calculator: นำมาใช้งานยังไง หลังจากได้ใส่ตัวแปรและทำการคำนวณด้วย fold equity calculator กันแล้ว ตอนนี้เราจะมาดูเทคนิคการนำ “fold%” ตัวเลข. Fold Equity There are two possible ways a player can win a hand, he either has the best hand at the showdown or he forces all other players to fold their hands in the betting rounds. His probability to win a hand increases as the probability increases that all opponents fold their hands. Fold Equity takes the “equity” concept a step further and refers to the amount of equity a player gains in the hand from betting or raising and making their opponent fold. As an example, let’s suppose Player 1 had 75% equity (chance of winning the hand) on the turn, and Player 2 had 25% equity. Fold Equity Posted on June 21, 2013 by Poker Dictionary This is when a player has enough chips to pressure someone with less chips to fold. If a player has a small amount of chips he is usually forced to showdown his hands because the players with more chips have less to lose.

What is fold equity?

Fold equity is the value that a player expects to gain on average, from the times his opponents fold to his bet. When an aggressive player bets, he has fold equity working on his side. In every bet he makes, there is a chance that his opponents will give up their hand and fold. When someone gives up his hand, he also gives up whatever equity he has in the hand! In other words, by betting or raising, you force opponents out of the hand and, therefore, increase your chances of winning what is in the pot.

So, what about the cost of your bet?

Nothing is free, and being aggressive comes with a cost. When you bet, you are risking money, as your opponent may reraise you out of the pot, or you can eventually lose it at showdown. When pondering whether to bet or not, you have to compare this cost to the expected gain from fold equity. Let’s analyze two different scenarios and check if betting is profitable.

A couple of examples

You are facing a single opponent. You have K♠Q♣, the board is J♥J♣10♠3♠ on the turn, and there is 100$ in the pot. You have an open-ended straight draw with two overcards, so you are considering a semi-bluff. Your opponent checks, and you are thinking of betting your last 60$.

In the first scenario, your opponent holds A♠2♠. With one card to come, you have 25% of winning if the hand goes to showdown. Therefore, your current pot equity is 25% of the pot, or 25$.

Let’s consider that, if you go all-in, your opponent will fold 40% of the time. This means that 40% of the time, you increase your equity from 25$ to 100$! The fold equity is, therefore, 40% of 75$ (the increase of equity) or 30$.

When your opponent calls your bet, it costs you as you are putting more money in the pot as an underdog. You place 60$ and will get back 25% of 120$ (total bets on the turn), or 30$. So 60% of the time, when your opponent calls, you lose 30$. Therefore, the cost of your bet is 18$ (0.6 x -30$).

On total, you lose 18$, your bet cost, and win 30$, the fold equity. This means that on average, you win 12$, so a semi-bluff is profitable!

For our second example, in the same scenario, you have 7♥6♥ , and your opponent has 8♥8♠. Now you are drawing dead, and your pot equity is zero!

Let’s consider that this time, your opponent folds 30% of the time when you go all-in. As you have zero pot equity, fold equity is 30% the amount in the pot, or 30$. When your opponent calls, you lose your turn bet, 60$, as you have no chance of winning at showdown. Therefore, your bet cost is -42$ (0.7 x -60$).

On total, you lose 42$, your bet cost, and win 30$, the fold equity. This time making a semi-bluff is unprofitable.

Keep in mind that in general, when you estimate fold equity, you do so based on your opponent’s hand range and not on his specific holding. From the examples above, we can notice that fold equity varies depending on the specific conditions. Let’s take a look at how different factors can affect fold equity.

Number of remaining players

The number of remaining players plays an important role when assessing fold equity. In general, the more players remain in the pot, the less fold equity you have. This is because forcing many players to fold is very difficult, so you do not expect a radical increase of your pot slice.

With a trash hand, if you bet against a single opponent, you have a significant chance of winning the pot. However, if you bet against many, even if only one calls your bluff, your equity remains close to zero. So you do not gain much.

A common mistake is trying to bluff against several opponents. Understanding how the number of players influences fold equity can save you from making similar mistakes!

Opponents’ playing styles

The playing style of your opponents affects your fold equity significantly. For example, when your opponents are rocks, so very tight, they will fold most of their hands. Against them, you have a lot of fold equity, and aggression becomes even more profitable.

On the other hand, when your opponents are calling stations, so very loose, it can be challenging to make them fold, even sub-mediocre hands!

Against them, your fold equity decreases substantially. So lean towards playing your hand straightforward, value betting more and bluffing or semi-bluffing less.

Fold equity and pot equity

Fold equity corresponds to the increase of value you get when one or more players fold. As a consequence, fold equity is more substantial when your pot equity prior to betting is small. For example, someone with 40% pot equity can increase it by 60% when his opponents fold. On the other hand, someone with 10% pot equity can augment it by 90%!

Fold equity and bet cost

As discussed above, when you have little pot equity, you can gain more fold equity by betting. On the opposite side, when you bet with a weaker hand, your bets cost more. This is because you put more money in the pot as a bigger underdog. For example, when you make a bet heads-up with a hand that has 50% of winning at showdown, your bet does not cost you. However, when you bet with a hand that has 25% of winning at showdown when your opponent calls, on average, you lose half the bet!

Flop texture

Flop texture is essential in assessing your fold equity. It determines the likelihood that your opponents have connected with the flop. If the board is dry, there are more chances that your opponents have air and will not call a bet. As a consequence, in dry flops, your fold equity is more significant. On the contrary, on draw-heavy boards, it is more likely that your opponents have enough, a made hand or a draw, to justify a call. In such boards, fold equity is generally more limited.

Some boards are particularly dry, making it even more difficult for someone to have caught a piece. For example, paired boards, like JJ5 or K44, are particularly suitable for a continuation bet, as they present fewer possibilities for your opponents to have connected. In such boards, fold equity is even greater.

Does your bet make sense?

To maximize fold equity, your bet must be convincing. It must make sense, be part of a plausible story that you have a strong hand. For example, let’s say that you raise preflop from middle position with Q♥10♥ and get called by the big blind. The flop comes A♣8♠7♠, and when checked to you, you decide to make a continuation bet. In this scenario, your bet makes sense as it tells the story that you raised preflop with an ace and hit the flop! Now consider that in the same situation, you check on the flop, and the turn is the 3♥, a blank. Your opponent checks again. If you bet now, your bet is much less convincing. It less credible because if you had an ace, you would have bet most of the time on the flop for value and for protection against draws.

An afternote

There is a second, more straightforward definition of fold equity that does not take into account the current pot equity of the bettor. Under this alternative definition, fold equity equals the probability that opponents fold multiplied with the amount in the pot. So, if opponents fold to a bet 30% of the time, fold equity is 30% of the pot. This definition does not calculate the increase in equity but is the same no matter how much equity the bettor possesses when betting.

Even if this simplistic definition can be useful, it does not take into account the current pot equity of the bettor and is incomplete. In our examples, we used the first definition to analyze situations and better comprehend the value of fold equity.

In a nutshell

Fold equity corresponds to the gained equity from betting when opponents fold. When you bet, you have fold equity working on your side, and this is what makes aggression so profitable. Using fold equity correctly to your advantage can improve your game immensely!

This tutorial is part of the Advanced Poker Strategy Course. You can continue to the next tutorial on Limping in Poker!

Fold equity is somewhat of an advanced poker concept, and while the logic is straightforward, the math can be tricky. The concept of fold equity is base on the truism that if nobody calls your bet, you will win 100% of the time. Stated in another way, you have 100% equity in all pots in which you bet and nobody calls. Of course you cannot know in advance if your opponents will all fold to you. When you make a bet, sometimes your opponents will all fold and sometimes they will not. When calculating fold equity, you must make an educated guess about the probability that each will occur. For this reason, a fold equity calculation is a type of implied odds calculation, and can be either positive or negative.
Here is how you construct a fold equity calculation mathematically. For simplicity’s sake, we will consider your bet as an all in gambit, although in real life this will not always be the case.

Poker Term Fold Equity

Consider Pf as the probability that all opponents will fold if you bet, Es as your showdown equity, Pw as the probability you will win at showdown, and Pl as the probability you will lose at showdown, such that Fold Equity = (Pf * Pot amount before your wager) + Es. And Es = [(Pw *Pot amount after your wager) +( Pl * Pot amount after your wager)] (1-Pf)
What this means is that the percentage of time that all opponents fold multiplied by the amount of the pot prior to your bet can be considered as your equity, but you also have to include in the equation what occurs when you are called. When you are called, some percentage of the time you will win, and some percentage of the time you will lose. When you win, you will win the amount in the pot after betting and being called. Likewise, when you lose, you will lose the same amount. Multiply each by the probability of each occurring. Then add these two products together. This sum can be a negative or positive amount, depending upon whether or not you have the best starting hand. Even if you have the worst hand, and Es is negative, and it often will be, fold equity can still be positive, because you still have to add the equity you receive when you steal the pot successfully.
Fold equity is an important concept to master for effective bluffing in both live and tournament play. It is most frequently applied to the stealing of blinds in the later stages of tournaments, where it is absolutely crucial for success. In tournament play, a missed opportunity to steal the blinds can be fatal. Understanding when you have fold equity is absolutely critical. A key aspect to this is making a good prediction about the value of Pf, the probability that all opponents will fold. Remember, you are estimating this, and you will have to consider many things if you are to come up with an accurate estimate. Things to consider when predicting how often your opponents call include, how loose or tight they are, your table image, the size of your bet, the size of your stack and your opponents’ relative to each other as well as to the size of the blinds, and many other factors.

Poker Term Fold Equity Formula

Poker Term Fold Equity Calculator

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